RIGA, May 21 (LETA) - Russia’s activities are becoming more unpredictable, and this increases the risk that the country could miscalculate in its actions and pose a greater threat, the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) told LETA.

Commenting on the drone incidents in Latvia in recent weeks and possible threats to airspace, as well as Russia’s disinformation campaign claiming that Ukraine is allegedly using the Baltic states for attacks, Latvia’s special services assess that Russia’s information campaign in the context of the drone incidents is part of Russia’s heightened perception of threats.

In recent years, Russia’s attitude toward Western countries, including Latvia, has become increasingly hostile and aggressive, largely based on a distorted perception of threats and assumptions detached from reality. This is fueled by the growing insularity of the Kremlin elite and the lack of internal critical voices, notes the national security agency.

Russia often views the actions of other countries through a lens of similarity, believing that they will act as the Russian regime would in similar situations. Such a perception and worldview increase various risks of miscalculation, the SAB assesses.

As the Russian perception of threats intensifies, security risks in Europe are significantly increasing, the SAB assesses. Moscow often counters or prepares to counter perceived threats, making Russia’s activities more unpredictable - potential actions become increasingly difficult to assess from an objective reality perspective, and there is a risk that Russia could miscalculate with its actions.

At the same time, the SAB assesses that the likelihood of Russian military aggression against Latvia is low in the short term.

It is highly likely that the goal of the current campaign is to influence Latvia’s decision-making process in line with the interests of the regime in power in Russia and to exert psychological pressure with the aim of reducing the willingness of Latvia and other Western countries to support Ukraine, the SAB notes.

As reported, on Tuesday, Wednesday and today, residents in several Latvian municipalities in Latgale received cell alerts about a possible threat to airspace. On Tuesday, such alerts were also received in a number of municipalities in Vidzeme.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has falsely claimed that Ukraine is preparing strikes against Russia’s rear regions from the territory of the Baltic states and that Ukrainian soldiers have already been sent to Latvia.